Assessing Local Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rio de la Plata Basin, Uruguay
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Publicado
dic 22, 2016
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Resumen
Vulnerability assessments to climate change have a long history on multidisciplinary research. The focus on constructing assessments has shifted from relying only on biophysical and climatic features toward a more integrated approach including social and economic aspects of human communities. This expansion on scope has converted assessments on useful tools to inform policy making and public expenditure on mitigation and adaptation to climate change. However, there is no consensus on the appropriate modelling to be followed given uncertainty on weighting and aggregation mechanisms. The purpose of this paper is to assess vulnerability to climate change at local level for the Rio de la Plata Basin in Uruguay. For this we choose a set of indicators and a methodology that can be applied to any development project and is suitable of replication to different scales, dynamics and regional diversity. Our vulnerability assessment differs from other studies in the sense that aggregation does not rely on subjective or experts-based weights but on the behavior of data. Results show north-south distribution of the most vulnerable localities in the central areas of the Basin. The vulnerability profiles are shaped mainly by adaptive capacity (in the form of access to sewage treatment systems) and hazards related to precipitation and temperature.
Palabras clave
Exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, adaptation, mitigation
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Citas
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Watson, R., M. Zinyoera, and R. Moss (1996). “Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analysis”. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Watson, R., M. Zinyoera, and R. Moss (1998). “The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability”. A Special Report of IPCC Working Group II. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Antwi-Agye, P., E. Fraser, A. Dougill, L. Stringer, E. Simelton. (2012). “Mapping the vulnerability of crop production to drought in Ghana using rainfall, yield and socioeconomic data”. Applied Geography, 32, pp. 324-334.
Bjornsson H. and S. Venegas (1997). “A manual for EOF and SVD analyses of climate data”. McGill University, CCGCR Report No. 97-1, Montréal, Québec, 52pp.
Blaikie, P., T. Cannon, I. Davis, and B. Wisner (1994). At Risk: Natural Hazards,People’s Vulnerability, and Disasters. London: Routledge.
Bohle, H., T. Downing, and M. Watts (1994). “Climate change and social vulnerability: toward a sociology and geography of food insecurity”. Global Environmental Change, 4, pp. 37–48.
Chambers, R. (1989). “Vulnerability, coping and policy”. Institute of Developmental Studies Bulletin, 20, pp. 1–7.
Cutter, S. (1996). “Vulnerability to environmental hazards”. Progress in Human Geography, 20, pp. 529–539.
Gbetibouo, G., C. Ringler, and R. Hassan (2010). “Vulnerability of the South African farming sector to climate change and variability: an indicator approach.” Natural Resources Forum, 34, pp. 175-187.
Gutowski, William, Gabriele Hegerl, Greg Holland, Thomas Knutson, Linda Mearns, Ronald Stouffer, Peter Webster, Michael Wehner, y Francis Zwiers. 2008. «Causes of observed changes in extremes and projections of future changes». Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, junio, 81-116.
Hiremath, D. and R. Shiyani (2013). “Analysis of Vulnerability Indices in Various Agro-Climatic Zones of Gujarat”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 68, pp. 122-138.
Emery, William J., y Richard E. Thomson. “Chapter 4 - The Spatial Analyses of Data Fields”. In Data Analysis Methods in Physical Oceanography, by William J. Emery and Richard E. Thomson, 305-370. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 2001.
Hiremath, D. and R. Shiyani. 2012. “Evaluating Regional Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case of Saurashtra”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 67, pp. 334-350.
Ionescu, C., R. Klein, J. Hinkel, K. Kavi-Kumar, R. Klein (2009). “Towards a Formal Framework of Vulnerability to Climate Change”. Environmental Model Assesment, 14, pp. 1-16
Iyengar, N. and P Sudarshan (1982), “A Method of Classifying Regions from Multivariate Data”, Economic and Political Weekly, Special Article, pp. 2048-2052.
IPCC, ed. 2001. Climate Change 2001 – The scientific basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
-----, ed. 2014. Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Kanamitsu, Masao, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Jack Woollen, Shi-Keng Yang, J. J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, y G. L. Potter. 2002. «NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2)». Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83 (11): 1631-43. doi:10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631.
Kelly, P., and W. Adger (2000). “Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation”. Climatic Change, 47, pp. 325–352.
Kevin E. Trenberth. 1999. «The extreme weather events of 1997 and 1998. Consequences, 5, 1, 2–15». http://www.gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/vol5no1/extreme.html.
Lardy, R., R. Martin, B. Bachelet, D. Hill, and G. Bellochi (2012). “Ecosystem Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Framework”. In: Seppelt, R., A. Voinov, S. Lange, and D. Bankamp 2012 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Managing Resources of a Limited Planet, Sixth Biennial Meeting, Leipzig, Germany
Lorenz, E. (1956). “Empirical Orthogonal Functions and Statistical Weather Prediction”. Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Meteorology.
Luers, A., D. Lobell, L. Sklar, C. Addams, and A. Matson (2003). “A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico”. Global Environmental Change, 13, pp. 255-267
Mason, P. J., J. W. Zillman, A. Simmons, E. J. Lindstrom, D. E. Harrison, H. Dolman, S. Bojinski, A. Fischer, J. Latham, y J. Rasmussen. 2010. «Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (2010 Update)». Monograph. agosto. http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/162953/.
Mearns, L., C. Rosenzweig, and R. Goldberg. “Mean and Variance change in climate scenarios: Methods, Agricultural applications, and measures of uncertainty”. Climatic Change, 35, pp. 367-396.
Mitchell, J., N. Devine, and K. Jagger (1989). “A contextual model of natural hazards”. Geographical Review, 79, pp. 391–409.
Ribot, J. (1996). “Climate variability, climate change and vulnerability: moving forward by looking back”. In: Ribot, J., R. Magalhaes, S. Panagides (Eds.), Climate Variability, Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in the Semi-Arid Tropics. Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge.
Watson, R., M. Zinyoera, and R. Moss (1996). “Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analysis”. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Watson, R., M. Zinyoera, and R. Moss (1998). “The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability”. A Special Report of IPCC Working Group II. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.