The The role of inflation in creating the key policy rate – validation of Taylor's Rule in case of Serbia
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.sidebar##
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##
Resumen
Due to high inflation expectations, the National Bank of Serbia has chosen price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy and the key policy rate as the main instrument of monetary regulation. However, despite a clearly defined Taylor rule, the key policy rate does not always follow the movement of the rate of inflation. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to test the effects of inflation rate on the key policy rate and the possibility of using Taylor rule in the original conditions of low inflation. Based on the defined object of the research, we tested the following hypothesis: inflation rate had statistically significant impact on the key policy rate in the whole analyzed period, between 2007 and 2015. The same observation was tested for two sub-periods between 2007 and 2011 and between 2012 and 2015. Therefore, it can be concluded that there is statistically significant moderate impact of inflation rate on the key policy rate, but representativeness of the model could be higher. The lack of reaction of the key policy rate to inflation stresses the need for redefining monetary policy instruments and modifying the strategy of inflation targeting.
Palabras clave
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##
Aquellos autores/as que tengan publicaciones con esta revista, aceptan los términos siguientes:
- Los autores/as conservarán sus derechos de autor y garantizarán a la revista el derecho de primera publicación de su obra, el cuál estará simultáneamente sujeto a la Licencia de reconocimiento de Creative Commons que permite a terceros compartir la obra siempre que se indique su autor y su primera publicación esta revista.
- Los autores/as podrán adoptar otros acuerdos de licencia no exclusiva de distribución de la versión de la obra publicada (p. ej.: depositarla en un archivo telemático institucional o publicarla en un volumen monográfico) siempre que se indique la publicación inicial en esta revista.
- Se permite y recomienda a los autores/as difundir su obra a través de Internet (p. ej.: en archivos telemáticos institucionales o en su página web) antes y durante el proceso de envío, lo cual puede producir intercambios interesantes y aumentar las citas de la obra publicada. (Véase El efecto del acceso abierto).
Este obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento 4.0 Internacional
Citas
Bivens, J. (2014) “Tightening monetary policy now is a bad mistake”, Challenge, vol. 57, no. 6, November/December 2014, pp. 5–22., DOI: 10.2753/0577-5132570601
Chadha, J.S, Turner, P., Zampolli, F. (2013) “The ties that bind: monetary policy and government debt management”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 29, Number 3, 2013, pp. 548–581, DOI:10.1093/oxrep/grt030
Di Giorgio, G., (2014) “Monetary policy challenges: how central banks changed their modus operandi”, Eurasian Econ Rev (2014) 4:25–43, DOI: 10.1007/s40822-014-0002-5
Goodhart, Charles A.E. (2013) „The potential instruments of monetary policy”, Central bank review, Turkey, Vol. 13, pp 1.
Hofmann, B. Bogdanova, B., (2012) „Taylor rules and monetary policy: a global „great deviation“, BIS Quarterly Review, 37-39.
Furtula, S. (2008) “Referentna kamatna stopa Narodne banke Srbije kao instrument regulisanja inflacije”, Bankarstvo, Udruženje banaka Srbije, Beograd, br. 11-12, 68-76.
Jevđović, G. (2014) „Investigating the Efficiency of Monetary Transmission Channels in Serbia”, Industrija, Vol.42, No.2, DOI: 10.5937/industrija42-6099
Mitchell, K, Pearce K. D. (2010) Do Wall Street economists believe in Okun’s Law and the Taylor Rule? Journal of Economics and Finanance, Springer, 34, 196–217, DOI 10.1007/s12197-009-9085-3
Molodtsova, T., Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, A., Papell, D. H. (2011) “Taylor rules and the euro”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 43, No. 2–3 (March–April 2011), p. 536. DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2011.00384.x
Nekipelov, A., Golovnin, M. (2010) “Strategy and Tactics of Monetary Policy in Conditions of the Global Economic Crisis”, Problems of Economic Transition, vol. 53, no. 3, July 2010, pp. 5–25. DOI 10.2753/PET1061-1991530301
Ormerod,P., Rosewell, B. and Phelps P. (2013) Inflation/unemployment regimes and the instability of the Phillips curve, Applied Economics, 2013, 45, 1519–1531, Routledge
Svensson., L. (2015) “The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation below a Credible Target”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1): 258–296 http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20130176
Taylor, J. B. (1999) Monetary policy rules, University of Chicago Press
Taylor, J. B. (1993) „Discretion versus policy rules in practice“, Carnegie-Rochester, Conference Series on Public Policy 39, 195-214.
Narodna banka Srbije, Statistika, Available at: http://www.nbs.rs/internet/cirilica/80/index.html> [Accessed: June 23, 2017]
Narodna banka Srbije (2007) Izveštaj o inflaciji – prvo tromesečije, Available at http://www.nbs.rs/system/galleries/download/pdf_ioi/ioi_05_2007.pdf, [Accessed: June 29, 2017]