Comparison of two mathematical models to estimate the cases of dengue in the province of Guayas (Ross-Macdonald, Anderson-May).

Abstract

Infectious diseases are influenced especially by ecological and demographic variables, to date there have been innumerable mathematical efforts to study the dynamics of malaria transmitted by infectious vectors. Through biological and statistical knowledge, it has been possible to demonstrate epidemiological processes that lead to a better understanding of the behavior patterns of Aedes Aegypti. In this work, retrospective modeling is performed through the Ross-Macdonald and Anderson-May models, which simulate time series to estimate the observed cases of dengue in the Province of Guayas in the period 2014-2017. The modeling obtained an accuracy of 43.3% and 46.5% applying an iterative process of the entomological parameters that feed the models. 

Keywords: Ross-McDonald Model, Anderson-May Model, epidemiological week, entomological parameters, computer simulation