Population projections of Imbabura province (Ecuador), 2011-2040

Abstract

The article projects Imbabura province’s population up to year 2040 under four different scenarios that consider varied assumptions about the future trajectory of basic demographic variables: fertility, mortality and migration. Projections are obtained by means of determining imbaburean base population and formulating hypotheses about the future behavior of those variables (assumptions include closed projection, constant internal migration, decreasing international migration and improvement of future levels of fertility). Projective exercises like this one are useful for local planning focused on infrastructure construction, provision of services, organization of urban development and other policies aimed to improve the living level of populations.