The first construction of a quantitative profile for elected mayors in an Ecuadorian election

  • Wendy Chávez OPPG Observatorio de Políticas Públicas de Guayaquil, Kennedy Norte Mz. 801 V. 4, Guayaquil-Ecuador
  • Jessica M. Vera-Bermúdez ESPOL Polytechnic University, Campus Gustavo Galindo Km. 30.5 Vía Perimetral, P.O. Box 09-01-5863, Guayaquil-Ecuador
  • Omar Ruiz-Barzola ESPOL Polytechnic University, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida (FCV), Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Matemáticas (FCNM), Campus Gustavo Galindo Km. 30.5 Vía Perimetral, P.O. Box 09-01-5863, Guayaquil - Ecuador


This research puts into context statistical multivariate methods in the political arena, making the first contribution to the analysis of Ecuadorian politics on the definition of elected mayors' profile. In this regard, a logistic regression model was estimated to describe voters' preferences in terms of candidates' age, gender and political organization; and, a CHAID decision tree was built to delve into the preferred features depending on the political party. This latter analysis revealed interesting differences that also help to describe Ecuadorian political reality. The sample upon which the profiles were built included the voters' preferences from the four most populated Ecuadorian provinces in the mayors' election in 2014.  This analysis combines the application of statistics in the political science field and proposes to be the first step for future research to analyze how the preferred profile of elected candidates changes over time.


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