The first construction of a quantitative profile for elected mayors in an ecuadorian election

  • Wendy Chávez OPPG Observatorio de Políticas Públicas de Guayaquil, Kennedy Norte Mz. 801 V. 4, Guayaquil-Ecuador
  • Jessica M. Vera-Bermúdez ESPOL Polytechnic University, Campus Gustavo Galindo Km. 30.5 Vía Perimetral, P.O. Box 09-01-5863, Guayaquil-Ecuador
  • Omar Ruiz-Barzola ESPOL Polytechnic University, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Facultad de Ciencias de Vida (FCV), Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Matemáticas (FCNM), Campus Gustavo Galindo Km. 30.5 Vía Perimetral, P.O. Box 09-01-5863, Guayaquil - Ecuador


This research puts into context statistical multivariate methods in the political arena, making the first contribution to the analysis of Ecuadorian politics on the definition of elected mayors' profile. In this regard, a logistic regression model was estimated to describe voters' preferences in terms of candidates' age, gender and political organization; and, a CHAID decision tree was built to delve into the preferred features depending on the political party. This latter analysis revealed interesting differences that also help to describe Ecuadorian political reality. The sample upon which the profiles were built included the voters' preferences from the four most populated Ecuadorian provinces in the mayors' election in 2014.  This analysis combines the application of statistics in the political science field and proposes to be the first step for future research to analyze how the preferred profile of elected candidates changes over time.


Abu-Hanna, A. and de Keizer, N. (2003). Integrating classification trees with local logistic regression in intensive care prognosis. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, 29(1):5–23.

Ágora-Política (2012). Equidad política: Mujeres en el ejercicio del poder. International IDEANIMD, 3:32–34.

Agresti, A. and Kateri, M. (2011). Categorical data analysis. In International encyclopedia of statistical science, pages 206–208. Springer.

Baines, P. R., Harris, P., and Lewis, B. R. (2002). The political marketing planning process: improving image and message in strategic target areas. Marketing Intelligence & Planning, 20(1):6–14.

Becker, M. (2013). The stormy relations between Rafael Correa and social movements in Ecuador. Latin American Perspectives, 40(3):43–62.

Camdeviren, H. A., Yazici, A. C., Akkus, Z., Bugdayci, R., and Sungur, M. A. (2007). Comparison of logistic regression model and classification tree: An application to postpartum depression data. Expert Systems with Applications,32(4):987–994.

Caprara, G. V., Schwartz, S., Capanna, C., Vecchione, M., and Barbaranelli, C. (2006). Personality and politics: Values, traits, and political choice. Political psychology, 27(1):1–28.

Carugo, O., Eisenhaber, F., and Carugo (2016). Data mining techniques for the life sciences. Springer.

CNE (2014). Resultados de las elecciones seccionales 2014. Technical report, Consejo Nacional Electoral.

Collins, J. N. (2006). Democratizing formal politics: indigenous and social movement political parties in Ecuador and Bolivia, 1978-2000. PhD thesis, UC San Diego.

Cox, D. R. (1958). The regression analysis of binary sequences. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 20(2):215–232.

Della Porta, D. and Diani, M. (2015). The Oxford handbook of social movements. Oxford University Press.

Di Rienzo, J., Casanoves, F., Balzarini, M., Gonzalez, L., Tablada, M., and Robledo, C. (2011). Infostat.

Freidenberg, F. (2015). dónde compiten los partidos en Ecuador? estrategias territoriales multinivel en un sistema político unitario. Revista Valor Agregado, 2:81–84.

Freidenberg, F. and Sáez, M. A. (2001). Los dueños del poder: los partidos políticos en Ecuador,(1978-2000). FLACSO, Sede Ecuador.

Fu, C. Y. (2004). Combining loglinear model with classification and regression tree (cart): an application to birth data. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 45(4):865–874.

Gurr, T. (2010). Why Men Rebel. Paradigm Publishers.

Hernández, V. and Buendçia, F. (2011). Ecuador: avances y desafíos de alianza país. Nueva Sociedad, 234:12–142.

INEC (2010). Proyección de la población ecuatoriana, por años calendario, según regiones, provincias y sexo. Technical report, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos.

Kass, G. V. (1980). An exploratory technique for investigating large quantities of categorical data. Applied statistics, pages 119–127.

Kim, Y. (2011). The contribution of social network sites to exposure to political difference: The relationships among snss, online political messaging, and exposure to cross-cutting perspectives. Computers in Human Behavior, 27(2):971–977.

Lemeshow, S., Sturdivant, R. X., and Hosmer, D. W. (2013). Applied Logistic Regression (Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics). Wiley.

Machado Puertas, J. C. (2007). Ecuador: el derrumbe de los partidos tradicionales. Revista de ciencia política (Santiago), 27:129 – 147.

Magidson, J. and Vermunt, J. K. (2005). An extension of the chaid tree-based segmentation algorithm to multiple dependent variables. In Classificationthe Ubiquitous Challenge, pages 176–183. Springer.

Maier, N. R. (1942). The role of frustration in social movements. Psychological Review, 9(6):586

Mejia-Acosta, A. (2004). Ghost Coalitions: Economic Reforms. Fragmented Legislatures and Informal Institutions in Ecuador (1979-2002). PhD thesis, University of Notre Dame.

Mejia Acosta, A., Freidenberg, F., and Pachano, S. (2005). La ciencia política en Ecuador: un reflejo de su fragilidad democrática (1978-2005). Revista de ciencia política (Santiago), 25(1):147–161.

MPAIS (2006). Manifiesto ideológico. Technical report, Movimiento Alianza País.

Mustillo, T. (2016). Party–voter linkages derived from the calculus of voting model: Electoral mobilization in ecuador. Rationality and Society, 28(1):24–51.

Neath, A. A. and Cavanaugh, J. E. (2012). The bayesian information criterion: background, derivation, and applications. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Computational Statistics, 4(2):199–203.

Polga-Hecimovich, J. (2013). Ecuador: Estabilidad institucional y la consolidación de poder de Rafael Correa. Revista de ciencia politica (Santiago), 33:135–160.

Roach, J. K. and Roach, J. L. (1980). Turmoil in command of politics: Organizing the poor. The Sociological Quarterly, 21(2):259–270.

Roach, J. L. and Roach, J. K. (1979). Disunity and unity of the working class: Reply to piven and cloward. Social Problems, 26(3):267–270.

Sanchez, F. (2008). Democracia no lograda o democracia malograda? Un análisis del sistema político del Ecuador: 1979-2002. FLACSO Andes.

Schwarz, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. The annals of statistics, 6(2):461–464.

Somuano, M. F. (2007). Movimientos sociales y partidos políticos en américa latina: una relación cambiante y compleja. Política y Cultura, pages 31–53.

SUMA (2012). quienes somos? Technical report, Movimiento Sociedad Unida Ms Accion.

Team, R. C. (2013). R: A language and environment for statistical computing.

Tsiptsis, K. K. and Chorianopoulos, A. (2011). Data mining techniques in CRM:
inside customer segmentation. John Wiley & Sons.

Vera Rojas, S. and Llanos-Escobar, S. (2016). Ecuador: La democracia después de nueve años de la “revolución ciudadana” de Rafael Correa. Revista de ciencia politica (Santiago), 36:145–175.

Walker, L., Baines, P. R., Dimitriu, R., and Macdonald, E. K. (2017). Antecedents of retweeting in a (political) marketing context. Psychology & Marketing, 34(3):275–293.

Wilkinson, L. (1992). Tree structured data analysis: Aid, chaid and cart. In Proceedings of Sawtooth Software Conference